Commercial commentary | October 2026
By Tomas Ananjevas, Supply Chain Services Bureau
A customer accepts a higher transport rate. Revenue increases. The shipment moves.
But did the business actually earn more?
For a carrier, the answer depends on the cost of completing the transport, including the return journey. For a forwarder, it depends on the difference between the customer’s price and the cost of buying suitable capacity.
Higher selling rates can help. They can also conceal rising purchase costs, empty kilometers, waiting time, and services that were never included in the quotation.
When reviewing the road freight market, logistics providers therefore need to connect market signals with the economics of their own business.
Assess each direction separately
A transport corridor connects two markets, but the commercial conditions can differ considerably in each direction.
A carrier may secure an attractive outward shipment and then struggle to find a suitable return load. A forwarder may have reliable purchasing conditions in one direction while facing frequent price changes in the other.
This makes broad statements such as “Germany is strong” or “Scandinavian rates are rising” insufficient for pricing decisions.
The useful questions are more specific:
- Which direction are we selling?
- What vehicle, equipment, and service level does the shipment require?
- What capacity can we actually secure for the requested date?
- What happens after delivery?
- Does the customer’s price cover the full cost of meeting the commitment?
Public market indicators can provide context. Your own quotations, bookings, rejected offers and completed shipments show how that context affects your business.
Calculate the return journey before celebrating the outward rate
For fleet operators, an attractive outward rate can lose much of its value through an expensive return journey.
Empty kilometers, repositioning, waiting, and an additional overnight stop can change the round-trip result.
A practical review should include outward revenue, expected return revenue, total distance, empty running, driver time, fuel, tolls, ferries and other trip costs.
For forwarders, the exposure is different. A fixed customer rate may remain in place while the cost of purchasing transport changes from shipment to shipment.
The key question is whether the capacity needed to fulfill the customer commitment can still be purchased at a contribution that meets the businebusiness’srements.
Higher revenue can still produce lower contribution
Consider a simplified forwarding example:
| Per shipment | Before | After |
| Customer revenue | €1,000 | €1,050 |
| Purchased transport cost | €850 | €930 |
| Contribution before other costs | €150 | €120 |
| Contribution as a share of revenue | 15.0% | 11.4% |
Customer revenue increases by 5%, but contribution falls by 20%.
This is a hypothetical illustration, not market data. Contribution here means customer revenue minus purchased transport cost; it is not net profit.
The example shows why you should review revenue growth alongside purchase costs and contribution per shipment. A busier operation can generate more turnover while retaining less money to cover its other costs.
Fuel adjustments: the timing matters
A movement in pump prices does not necessarily translate into an immediate equivalent change in transport invoices.
Customer and supplier agreements may use different reference prices, calculation periods, thresholds and adjustment dates.
For example, a supplisupplier’stment could change monthly while the customcustomer’ses quarterly. Even where both mechanisms are reasonable individually, their timing can create a period of financial exposure.
Review both sides of the agreement:
- Which reference index is used?
- Which observation period determines the adjustment?
- When does the new price take effect?
- What share of the transport price is adjusted?
- Do reductions and increases follow the same rules?
The objective is to understand whether the customer pricing mechanism follows the costs the business actually incurs.
Recover the costs that fuel clauses do not cover
Fuel is only one part of transport economics.
Waiting, failed collections, additional delivery attempts, storage, route changes, ferry costs, and special handling can affect a shipmeshipment’sme.
Some costs can be anticipated when quoting. Others require a clear process to agree and document additional charges.
A useful account review asks:
Which services are we providing repeatedly without charging for them?
A customer may appear profitable at the quotation stage but generate substantial unpriced work during execution. Sales and operations need a shared view of these exceptions so that recurring costs influence future pricing and service agreements.
Use manufacturing signals to guide prospecting
Manufacturing output, orders, and trade statistics can help identify sectors worth investigating.
However, stronger activity in a country does not automatically mean every factory is expanding, freight volumes are growing on your routes, or customers will accept higher rates.
For sales teams, the next step is to turn a broad signal into a specific account hypothesis.
Which plants are increasing production? Are they introducing products, changing suppliers, or entering new markets? Could those changes create additional collections, more frequent deliveries, temporary storage, or greater time sensitivity?
Sector data helps decide where to investigate. Conversations with individual companies confirm whether a commercial opportunity exists.
Make quotation terms reflect the commitment
A quotation creates an operational obligation, not just a selling price.
Its validity, volume assumptions, collection windows, equipment requirements, waiting allowances, and additional charges should reflect the conditions under which the service can be delivered.
Sales and operations should also agree when a shipment needs a fresh purchase check.
This is particularly relevant when a customer changes the collection date, shipment dimensions, delivery deadline or expected volume after receiving the original quotation.
Small changes in the request can materially affect execution costs.
What logistics providers should monitor next
A useful commercial review brings together a small set of measures:
| Measure | What it helps reveal |
| Selling and purchase rates for comparable shipments | Whether price changes improve contribution |
| Contribution per shipment and account | Where growth creates financial value |
| Empty kilometers and return-load performance | Whether outward business supports profitable round trips |
| Waiting and uncharged additional services | Where execution costs escape the quotation |
| Customer and supplier adjustment dates | Where pricing mechanisms create exposure |
| Quotation conversion and lost-business reasons | How customers respond to price and service proposals |
Comparisons should account for differences in route, equipment, shipment size, timing and service requirements.
The purpose is to help teams make better decisions about which shipments to accept, which accounts to develop and which agreements need changing.
A higher market rate creates an opportunity. The value retained depends on how well the business prices, purchases and executes the transport.
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About the Author:
Tomas Ananjevas is a seasoned supply chain professional with 18 years of experience in purchasing and selling logistics services and building supply chains from the ground up.
Today, he helps freight forwarders, transportation companies, 3PLs, warehousing providers, logistics technology companies, and other supply chain businesses improve their sales performance, strengthen their market positioning, and build scalable growth systems.
As the creator of the Logistics Growth Blueprint, Tomas helps companies identify commercial bottlenecks, eliminate revenue leakage, improve customer acquisition, increase customer retention, and build more predictable growth without relying solely on price competition.
In addition to consulting, Tomas delivers training programs in sales, marketing, leadership, and customer experience for logistics organizations across Europe. He is also the creator of The Logistics Newsletter.
