Market update | 12 October 2026
This is the first edition of our European Road Freight Rate Pressure update. We combine rate benchmarks, directional freight-to-capacity signals, manufacturing orders, fuel costs, and confirmed disruptions to assess conditions over the next 4–8 weeks.
A higher selling rate looks like good news. But its value depends on the cost of securing capacity and completing the transport. For logistics providers, market rates and contribution need to be assessed separately.
What the rate figures tell us
The latest quarterly rate benchmark verified for this edition is the Upply–Ti–IRU Q2 2026 report. Its European contract-rate index reached 148.0, up 7.9 index points quarter on quarter. The spot-rate index rose 14.6 points to 146.8. These are index-point changes, not percentage increases. [1]
The spot index consequently sat 1.2 points below the contract index. That aggregate gap should not be read as the discount available on a specific shipment: the underlying routes, contracts and service conditions differ.
Public reporting of the Q2 benchmark also provides selected directional examples: [2]
| Route | Contract rate | Spot rate | Spot premium over contract* |
| Warsaw → Duisburg | €1.45/km | €1.51/km | 4.1% |
| Duisburg → Lille | €2.58/km | €2.89/km | 12.0% |
| Antwerp → Duisburg | €3.05/km | €3.19/km | 4.6% |
*Calculated from the reported rates. Q2 2026 observations, not October quotations. Source: PSPD-Gdynia’s published summary of the Upply–Ti–IRU benchmark, with corroborating reporting by trans.info.
These examples show why a European average cannot replace lane-level analysis. A spot premium can support a carrier selling available capacity while increasing exposure for a forwarder buying transport against a fixed customer price. It is not a forwarding margin. Rates per kilometer also should not be compared across different-length routes as if the operating conditions were identical.
The missing piece: freight and capacity in each direction
TIMOCOM’s public barometer adds a direct spot-market signal. Freight share describes the share of freight offers within the combined freight and vehicle-space offers on its exchange. It is not truck utilization, total market demand, or a count of unique shipments. Higher values suggest a more freight-heavy offer balance. [3]
| Corridor | September 2026 freight share, direction A | Reverse direction |
| Poland → Germany | 89% | Germany → Poland: 51% |
| Netherlands → Germany | 76% | Germany → Netherlands: 39% |
| Belgium → Germany | 76% | Germany → Belgium: 32% |
| Germany → France | 60% | France → Germany: 52% |
The Polish and Benelux pairs show pronounced asymmetry. However, September freight shares were only one percentage point above September 2025 for Poland → Germany, three points lower for Netherlands → Germany, and unchanged for Belgium → Germany. September’s increase from August therefore does not establish widespread new tightening.
The 12 October snapshot was 90% for Poland → Germany and 39% in reverse. This reinforces the directional distinction, but one intraday observation is not a forecast.
Baltic–Swedish routes need their own assessment
September 2026 TIMOCOM freight shares: [3]
| Outbound direction | Freight share | Reverse direction | Freight share |
| Lithuania → Sweden | 37% | Sweden → Lithuania | 12% |
| Latvia → Sweden | 33% | Sweden → Latvia | 15% |
| Estonia → Sweden | 33% | Sweden → Estonia | 57% |
These readings vary materially. The Baltic–Swedish exchange sample does not support treating all these routes as tight merely because Swedish manufacturing is growing. Nordic network, contracted and specialized flows may also be represented differently from exchange business.
Return-load balance matters for contribution
The practical implication of a directional imbalance is that a weak return leg can offset a better outward rate.
For fleet operators, assess contribution across the round trip, including empty kilometers, repositioning and waiting. For forwarders, review the purchase-price exposure of each direction separately. A provider buying Poland → Germany capacity faces different conditions from one buying Germany → Poland.
The barometer provides context for those decisions. It does not confirm that a suitable return load exists for a particular vehicle, location, or date.
Which economies are generating additional demand?
September manufacturing PMI readings provide a forward-looking demand check. [4–8]
| Market | September PMI | August | Order signal |
| Sweden | 58.1 | 56.3 | Broadly stronger orders and backlogs |
| Netherlands | 55.6 | 53.8 | Stronger new orders and material purchasing |
| Germany | 53.9 | 54.3 | Continued order and production growth in the survey |
| France | 50.6 | 51.1 | New orders falling for a fifth month |
| Poland | 49.0 | 48.3 | Contraction easing, but export orders still falling. |
PMI readings above 50 indicate improving manufacturing conditions compared with the previous month. They do not measure freight growth in percentage terms.
Sweden and the Netherlands provide stronger signals of manufacturing demand. That supports targeting customers with growing dispatch or replenishment needs, but does not establish pricing power on every connected transport route.
Germany’s data is mixed. Its truck toll mileage index increased 0.8% month on month in September after seasonal and calendar adjustment. August manufacturing orders, excluding large orders, fell only 0.1% month on month but were down 2.6% in the June–August comparison with the preceding three months. [9][10]
Poland illustrates another distinction: its September business-climate indicator was -5.8 for manufacturing but +1.6 for transportation and storage. Weak manufacturing sentiment does not describe every import, retail, or transit flow. [11]
Higher revenue can still mean lower contribution
Consider a simplified forwarding example:
| Per shipment | Before | After |
| Customer revenue | €1,000 | €1,050 |
| Purchased transport cost | €850 | €930 |
| Contribution before other costs | €150 | €120 |
| Contribution margin | 15.0% | 11.4% |
Revenue rises 5%, but contribution falls 20%. This is an illustration, not market data or net profit.
The exposure is particularly important where customers have fixed rates while transport is purchased shipment by shipment. Review quotation validity, volume assumptions and price-review provisions against the purchase conditions actually available.
Fuel: look beyond one week’s movement
The European Commission’s latest verified observations are dated 5 October. EU average diesel fell 3.9% from the preceding week, but remained 1.9% above 7 September. The latest weekly fall therefore does not mean the preceding month’s increase has disappeared. [12]
| Market | Diesel, 5 October | Weekly change | Four-week change* |
| Poland | €1.764/litre | -14.4% | -11.0% |
| Germany | €2.254/litre | -7.5% | -3.2% |
| Sweden | €2.118/litre | -0.8% | +11.2% |
| France | €2.355/litre | -0.6% | +4.4% |
| Netherlands | €2.506/litre | -0.8% | +2.6% |
*7 September to 5 October. Calculated from unrounded Weekly Oil Bulletin data. Consumer prices include duties and taxes; they are not haulers’ net purchase prices.
Germany and Poland show relief over both periods in this snapshot. Sweden’s diesel remains substantially above its early-September level, despite the latest weekly decline.
For fleet operators, fuel relief can support contribution if actual purchase costs fall faster than selling prices. For forwarders, it helps when purchased transport costs fall relative to customer revenue. Customer adjustment clauses may also pass savings back.
Fuel surcharges: the timing still matters
Fuel surcharge increases extend beyond DHL. Published October schedules from DACHSER, DSV and Ahola also show increases compared with their preceding published periods.
| Provider and scope | Previous surcharge | October surcharge | Change |
| DHL Freight Belgium | 20.69% | 22.44% | +1.75 pp |
| DHL Freight Hungary — Euroconnect/Eurapid | 17.50% | 19.50% | +2.00 pp |
| DACHSER Czech Republic | 24.00% | 27.00% | +3.00 pp |
| DSV Sweden — domestic freight under former Schenker agreements | 36.65% | 41.60% | +4.95 pp |
| Ahola Transport — Nordic Oil Bulletin index* | 16.10% | 18.50% | +2.40 pp |
*Ahola compares 21–30 September with 1–15 October. The other examples compare monthly schedules or the previous rate with the published October adjustment. pp = percentage points. Sources: provider websites. [13][14][19–21]
Across these examples, the adjustments increased by 1.75–4.95 percentage points. This supports a broader signal of fuel-cost pass-through across several published road-freight schedules. It is not a European average, and the surcharge levels cannot be compared directly because reference prices, formulas, and service scopes differ.
A weekly fall in pump prices may therefore provide little immediate relief in transport invoices. Monthly and fortnightly adjustments can still reflect higher prices in an earlier reference period.
For logistics providers, the contribution effect depends on when supplier adjustments change relative to customer pricing. Compare the reference index, effective date and review frequency on both sides: the timing difference can either squeeze contribution or temporarily improve it.
Tolls and disruption can change the economics
Dutch truck toll rates carry a temporary 22.3% reduction from 1 September through 31 December 2026. The published rate for a Euro VI vehicle combination over 32 tonnes in CO2 class 1 is €0.156 per charged kilometer during this period, compared with €0.201 before the reduction. Use the applicable vehicle class and charged route, rather than a generic Dutch cost uplift. [15]
Around Rotterdam, staged closures affect the A15 parallel carriageway towards Europoort/Maasvlakte between Ridderkerk and Benelux from 16–26 October. Rijkswaterstaat warns of additional journey times of up to 60 minutes on weekdays and 30 minutes at weekends. The entire A15 is not closed. [16]
Poland has extended border checks with Germany and Lithuania through 30 March 2027. This confirms continuing controls, not a measured increase in truck waiting times. Cost schedules use observed crossing times. [17]
Capacity over the longer term also deserves monitoring. ACEA reports EU truck registrations up 9.8% in H1 2026. Registrations can include replacement vehicles, however, so this does not demonstrate equivalent growth in available transport capacity. [18]
Our outlook for the next 4–8 weeks
Poland → Germany shows a strongly freight-heavy exchange balance. That may support carriers selling suitable available capacity, while forwarders with fixed customer prices need to watch purchase costs. The weaker reverse-direction balance makes round-trip planning important.
Netherlands and Belgium → Germany show more freight-heavy balances than their reverse directions. Dutch manufacturing orders provide additional demand support, but Netherlands fuel costs, route disruption, and actual capacity purchase prices still determine the contribution retained.
France–Germany is more mixed. September’s freight shares were below their year-earlier levels in both directions, despite the Germany → France rebound from August. Current evidence does not support a blanket call for higher rates.
Sweden remains a demand-development opportunity for providers with established capacity and return flows. The Baltic–Swedish exchange readings do not establish broad capacity tightness, and the four-week Swedish fuel increase adds cost pressure.
These are qualitative assessments of rate pressure and commercial exposure. Current October realized lane rates and provider-level margins were not verified, so no numerical composite score or profit forecast is presented.
What to monitor next
Track selling and purchase rates for comparable shipments, freight share in both directions, confirmed return loads, four-week operating-cost changes, and delays that reduce completed trips. Assess the implications separately for fleets and forwarders.
This first edition establishes a baseline with a date. Future editions should distinguish seasonal changes from year-on-year changes and check whether the previous outlook was reflected in subsequent comparable rate observations.
For logistics providers, the opportunity is where stronger selling rates or better utilization outweigh the cost of buying and executing the transport.
About the Author:
Tomas Ananjevas is a seasoned supply chain professional with 18 years of experience in purchasing and selling logistics services and building supply chains from the ground up.
Today, he helps freight forwarders, transportation companies, 3PLs, warehousing providers, logistics technology companies, and other supply chain businesses improve their sales performance, strengthen their market positioning, and build scalable growth systems.
As the creator of the Logistics Growth Blueprint, Tomas helps companies identify commercial bottlenecks, eliminate revenue leakage, improve customer acquisition, increase customer retention, and build more predictable growth without relying solely on price competition.
In addition to consulting, Tomas delivers training programs in sales, marketing, leadership, and customer experience for logistics organizations across Europe. He is also the creator of The Logistics Newsletter.
Sources and method
[1] IRU, Q2 2026 European rate benchmark, published 11 August: View source
[2] Q2 directional rate examples: PSPD-Gdynia, 12 August 2026, summarising the Upply–Ti–IRU report: View source
Corroborating reporting: View source
The full primary report was registration-gated; these route figures were checked against public reporting, not read from the full primary report.
[3] TIMOCOM public Transport Barometer: View source
Public embedded data: View source
September values are month-position 9 in the service’s 2026 history series. Changes compare the same series with August or September 2025. Snapshot source timestamp: 12 October 2026, 11:45 UTC (14:45 Europe/Vilnius). Data was read for each specified country direction using the public interface’s international relations. Offers represent the exchange sample, not unique freight movements, physical fleet totals, or confirmed transactions. No numerical rate-pressure score was inferred from these ratios.
[4] Swedbank/Silf, September manufacturing PMI: View source
[5] Nevi, September manufacturing survey: View source
[6] Germany final PMI, S&P Global data reported by CME/Econoday: View source
[7] France final PMI, S&P Global data reported by Reuters: View source
[8] Poland PMI, licensed S&P Global data reported by Trading Economics: View source
[9] Destatis, September truck toll mileage, 8 October release: View source
[10] Destatis, August manufacturing orders, 6 October: View source
[11] Statistics Poland, September business tendency: View source
[12] European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin, observations 5 October, 28 September and 7 September 2026; EUR/1000 liters converted to EUR/litre: View source
[13] DHL Freight Belgium: View source
[14] DHL Freight Hungary: View source
[15] Dutch truck toll authority, current vehicle-class tables: View source
[16] Rijkswaterstaat, A15 closures: View source
[17] Poland Ministry of Interior, 1 October border-check extension: View source
[18] ACEA, H1 2026 registrations, published 29 July: View source
[19] DACHSER Czech Republic, September and October 2026 fuel surcharges: View source View source
[20] DSV Sweden, October domestic freight adjustment under former Schenker agreements: View source
[21] Ahola Transport, 21–30 September and 1–15 October 2026 regional indices: View source
