For most European shippers, transportation has not been a major concern recently. Capacity remains available, rates are generally stable, and carriers continue competing aggressively for freight. After several difficult years for manufacturing and consumer demand, many procurement teams have become accustomed to operating in what is essentially a buyer’s market. Compared with the supply chain chaos of 2021 and 2022, today’s environment feels remarkably calm.
Yet that calm may be masking a more important development. While logistics managers focus on freight volumes, inventory levels, and economic indicators, a significant number of transport companies are quietly disappearing from the market. The trend has not received the same attention as inflation, tariffs, or geopolitical tensions, but it could prove just as important for the future of European supply chains.
The carriers that did not survive
The past few years have been particularly difficult for European road transport operators. Freight demand weakened following the post-pandemic boom. Industrial production across much of Europe slowed. Interest rates increased sharply. Fuel prices remained volatile. Labor costs continued to rise. In many countries, new environmental regulations and higher road tolls added additional pressure to already thin margins.
For large transport groups, these challenges were difficult but manageable. For smaller operators, they often proved existential.
Belgium offers one of the clearest examples. According to industry data, 413 transport companies declared bankruptcy in 2025, compared with 307 a year earlier. Germany has experienced a similar trend. Corporate insolvencies reached their highest level in more than a decade, with transport and logistics consistently ranking among the sectors under the greatest financial pressure. Similar patterns have been reported in Poland, the Netherlands, and several other European markets.
More than trucks
When a carrier exits the market, many shippers see only the immediate impact: fewer available trucks. The reality is far more complex.
Transport companies are not merely collections of vehicles. They are networks of people, relationships, and operational expertise. A bankrupt carrier removes drivers, dispatchers, customer contacts, route knowledge, and regional capacity from the market. These assets cannot simply be replaced by purchasing additional equipment.
This distinction is important because transportation capacity behaves differently from many other economic resources. Transportation capacity is considerably harder to scale. New trucks require significant investment. Drivers remain difficult to recruit across much of Europe. Building an efficient operational network takes years rather than months. As a result, capacity often disappears gradually but returns slowly.
That imbalance creates the conditions for future market tightening.
Additionally, in this economic environment, it is harder for small and medium-sized companies to grow. And this is bad for the whole ecosystem because big companies do not have a place to sell used trucks (which were previously bought by smaller carriers). Additionally, huge carriers are getting more power.
Lessons from across the Atlantic
If this sounds theoretical, recent developments in the United States provide a useful case study.
For nearly four years, the American trucking industry experienced one of the longest freight downturns in modern history. Freight volumes weakened, spot rates declined, and thousands of carriers left the market. Industry observers frequently described the situation as a freight recession.
Throughout this period, transportation buyers enjoyed abundant capacity. Finding trucks was rarely a problem. Rates remained under pressure. Many companies assumed those conditions would continue indefinitely.
Then the market changed. What makes the American example particularly interesting is that the shift did not occur because economic growth suddenly accelerated. Demand improved, but not dramatically. Instead, transportation capacity had fallen so significantly that even a modest recovery in freight volumes was enough to tighten the market.
Recent industry reports show U.S. spot rates rising sharply, with some segments experiencing year-on-year increases exceeding 50%. Transportation pricing indicators have reached their highest levels on record. Increasingly, analysts point to capacity destruction rather than exceptional demand growth as the primary cause.
Europe’s different path
Europe is not the United States, and direct comparisons should be approached with caution. The European transport market is more fragmented, regulations vary between countries, and economic growth remains weaker than across the Atlantic.
Nevertheless, several underlying trends look remarkably familiar. Capacity is leaving the market through bankruptcies and reduced investment. Fleet renewal has slowed for many operators. Driver shortages remain unresolved despite weaker demand. At the same time, economic forecasts suggest that Europe is gradually moving toward a period of moderate growth rather than recession.
According to the World Bank, global GDP growth is expected to reach 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. Growth forecasts for Europe remain relatively modest, but even modest growth can have significant implications when transportation capacity is shrinking.
This is perhaps the most important lesson from the American experience. Freight markets do not require exceptional economic performance to tighten. They simply require demand to recover faster than supply. Additional pressure points
Several emerging trends could further increase transportation demand over the coming years.
Defense spending across Europe is rising rapidly. Infrastructure investments are increasing in many countries. Supply chains continue to diversify as companies seek alternatives to overly concentrated sourcing strategies. Nearshoring initiatives are creating new freight flows within Europe and between neighboring regions.
At the same time, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Disruptions in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding major maritime corridors, and ongoing trade tensions are encouraging companies to build more resilient supply chains. Historically, resilience often means additional inventory, additional suppliers, and additional transportation movements.
None of these trends individually guarantees a carrier market. Collectively, however, they suggest that freight demand may prove stronger than many observers currently expect. So events like a steadier geopolitical situation or a period of peace in hot spots could spark the spiral of increased demand for logistics services.
The risk of assuming nothing will change
Perhaps the greatest danger for logistics leaders is not rising transportation costs. It is assumed that today’s market conditions are permanent.
Transportation markets tend to move slowly for long periods and then change surprisingly quickly. During the transition, the warning signs are often visible but largely ignored.
Europe may not experience the same tightening seen recently in the United States. Economic growth could remain weak. But these outcomes remain possible.
What is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore, however, is the steady reduction in transportation capacity occurring across the continent. Every bankruptcy removes a small piece of future supply. Every delayed fleet investment slows capacity recovery. Every driver leaving the industry reduces flexibility when demand eventually returns.
About the Author:
Thomas Ananjevas is a seasoned supply chain professional with 15 years of experience in purchasing and selling logistics services and building supply chains from the ground up.
Today, he helps freight forwarders, transportation companies, 3PLs, warehousing providers, logistics technology companies, and other supply chain businesses improve their sales performance, strengthen their market positioning, and build scalable growth systems.
As the creator of the Logistics Growth Blueprint, Tomas works with companies to identify commercial bottlenecks, eliminate revenue leakage, improve customer acquisition, increase customer retention, and create more predictable growth without relying solely on price competition.
In addition to consulting, Tomas delivers training programs in sales, marketing, leadership, and customer experience for logistics organizations across Europe. He is also the creator of The Logistics Newsletter.
